NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Predators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x411d6dbb7d235efe8db5c1467aead75cb0d147004d4817ea3c0bffe530218843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Ducks, Predators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Ducks | 43c | 2,261$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.1 | 584 | 67.5%394 W · 190 L | +93.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Predators | 61c | 1,019$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.43 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771b…932cbacked Predators | 61c | 963.32$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…f4f2backed Ducks | 39c | 960.38$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.13 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…00a7backed Predators | 32c | 736.35$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.44 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…22f6backed Ducks | 39c | 577$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.97 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930d…1dd8backed Predators | 62c | 503$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Predators | 61c | 475.13$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.83 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Predators | 60c | 444$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…322bbacked Ducks | 38c | 403.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Ducks | 39c | 336.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.11 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Predators | 51c | 294.91$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.03 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 39c | 283.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.63 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Predators | 60c | 268$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Ducks | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked Ducks | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Predators | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Predators | 60c | 227.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Predators | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Predators | 34c | 174.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Predators | 61c | 154.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ducks | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Predators | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed Predators | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Ducks | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Ducks | 38c | 96.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…913ebacked Predators | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…be98backed Predators | 69c | 75.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 154 | 70.1%108 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ducks | 39c | 71.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Predators | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Ducks | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2306…bec3backed Ducks | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…b078backed Ducks | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Ducks | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…60d2backed Ducks | 40c | 42.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575d…064dbacked Ducks | 39c | 41.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…171dbacked Ducks | 39c | 40.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcd…a1a5backed Ducks | 39c | 40.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3351…4fa5backed Predators | 62c | 38.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f62…82f5backed Predators | 60c | 36.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6a…9b75backed Ducks | 39c | 36.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…c94dbacked Ducks | 39c | 35.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Ducks | 52c | 34.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Predators | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 234 | 62%145 W · 89 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a7…34ddbacked Predators | 62c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…7f88backed Predators | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…492ebacked Ducks | 39c | 31.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36df…e360backed Predators | 62c | 30.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3111…9b92backed Ducks | 39c | 30.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Ducks | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 653 | 45%294 W · 359 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85dd…8c21backed Predators | 62c | 28.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…c591backed Ducks | 39c | 28.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcd…ba01backed Predators | 62c | 28.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a0…e4b6backed Ducks | 39c | 26.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa961…af51backed Predators | 62c | 24.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…fd3cbacked Predators | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…af69backed Predators | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…5c7fbacked Predators | 62c | 23.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…bca7backed Predators | 62c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…bfd9backed Predators | 62c | 23.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Predators | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…3e9bbacked Predators | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…e237backed Predators | 62c | 19.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffda…1371backed Predators | 62c | 18.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2f…ce20backed Predators | 62c | 18.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc4…8c38backed Predators | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.