Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x413b997a91b8cfff6fb5c3fb97cf376e5a4cb90549436f3ff2ce604a2eb883be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 72c | 394.52$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 9c | 361.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 283.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 237.93$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 72c | 138.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 135.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 115.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 114.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 99.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 43c | 97.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 40c | 91.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 84.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 67.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 32c | 67.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 66.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 60.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 22c | 56.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 33c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 52.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 47c | 47.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 46.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 33c | 45.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 44.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 34c | 42.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 47c | 37.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 43c | 32.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 61c | 31.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 31.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 42c | 28.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 49c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 70c | 26.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 60c | 17.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 66c | 17.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.