Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x414296f5579eed82ff39a3a5ff3268a5f5935f77a00e97ce4dff3d3dfe76e3fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 18c | 590.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 73c | 458.93$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…3b61backed Yes | 5c | 450.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 418.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 331.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 286.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 283$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed Yes | 11c | 277.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 14c | 271.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 257.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 217.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 204.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 22c | 197$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 30c | 192$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 181.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 20c | 167$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 57c | 130.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 127.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 120.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 17c | 114.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 114.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 37c | 101.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 53c | 100.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 93.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 85.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 30c | 79.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 62c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…e374backed No | 78c | 63.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 25c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 23c | 49.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd9…3ffabacked No | 75c | 38.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 70c | 36.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 51c | 32.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 76c | 23.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 69c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…03ffbacked No | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 78c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.