Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32515a11bdd5240323cbdec7f961623a69b931d1ee73a26efbc5c23c6107f864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b89…03ffbacked No | 0c | 7,181$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…65fdbacked No | 0c | 3,846$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 8c | 996$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 43c | 889.04$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.41 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 719.29$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.87 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 638.48$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.9 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 75c | 519.42$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 57c | 430.91$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.42 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 409.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 61c | 323$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.29 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…0807backed No | 7c | 307$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 279.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 272.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 47c | 256.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.78 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 34c | 216.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.45 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 69c | 200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.27 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 33c | 170.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 32c | 145$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 124.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 122.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 21c | 117.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 46c | 116.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 114.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 69c | 113.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 54c | 113.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 75c | 108.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 101.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 26c | 96.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 92.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 32c | 82.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 64c | 80.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 54c | 79.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…6966backed Yes | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 31c | 75.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 27c | 65.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 52c | 64.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…e99bbacked Yes | 39c | 63.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 62.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 58.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 66c | 57.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 55c | 54.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…0a6ebacked Yes | 56c | 50.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 46.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 27c | 40.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 35.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 73c | 34.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…c8f8backed Yes | 32c | 33.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 31.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa744…a569backed No | 64c | 28.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 56c | 27.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 42c | 26.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…2834backed No | 65c | 26.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 78c | 25.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed No | 52c | 21.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…bed8backed No | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 72c | 17.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.