TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes23c1,219$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.14,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes27c324.13$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.21,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes28c310.89$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3846626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No75c297.67$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9232157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9727…8248backed Yes44c228.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeedf…71e6backed Yes39c227.3$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.782941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c190.82$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.543,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c189.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No67c175.67$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6554143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes20c168.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.74136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No65c163.56$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4742…a58dbacked Yes32c155.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No69c151.67$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes24c146.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.931,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c141.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.467,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No72c136.08$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.11,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes19c121.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.241,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No64c114.76$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8524966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed Yes29c110$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.666753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed No80c105.65$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4310051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f48…7825backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3210614.2%15 W · 91 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes31c99.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9928737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No67c95.38$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.061,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes27c88.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2412230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69b2…e50abacked Yes34c88.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304136.6%15 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-26.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c87.21$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.682,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No71c84.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.626674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No79c75.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.527576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c71.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6e6dbacked Yes36c67.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes23c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes40c62.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3e1…1432backed Yes24c62.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+99.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes25c61.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3468521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No58c61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.348565.9%56 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b3…487cbacked Yes17c60.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No59c58.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.931,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes21c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.454143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa305…0a6ebacked Yes28c54.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No73c53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.221,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4122728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7817…d4b1backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205420.4%11 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b1…4a60backed No66c49.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.712564%16 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes29c48.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1333839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No67c47.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.542,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775c…28a9backed No59c46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.868964%57 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x437f…05cabacked Yes26c43.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-75.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No79c43.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2627376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x531e…a7b3backed Yes33c42.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145048%24 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c40.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.932,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.266735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21b…5121backed No64c39.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.282958.6%17 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No65c38.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.681,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02fe…5af0backed Yes27c37.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes30c35.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.826828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No68c35.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2951762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…dfb9backed Yes34c35.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda8f…7e67backed Yes33c34.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No60c34.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7625341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No62c33.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6632652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed No74c32.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4611044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed No68c32.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.458256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes40c32.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No59c28.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.622,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No71c28.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No62c25.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7386173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x266a…b152backed No69c23.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb2…58c1backed No72c21.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.97520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick64cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea3c…1c29backed No71c21.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c21.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.283,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe311…a16fbacked No61c21.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.182653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked No65c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4210264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8071…8b04backed No78c20.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.513360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a9…2d63backed No71c19.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+54.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.254080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebfc…46e8backed No67c15.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.136459.4%38 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.