College Football · resolved market
Spread: Troy (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e288037bcc4636859eb047731bf1f87a7df4b8ba00354ed572c46babb08b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Stateof Troy, Arkansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arkansas State | 51c | 4,990$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445.5 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Troy | 49c | 3,952$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.46 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ac…29cfbacked Troy | 51c | 3,238$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…884cbacked Troy | 51c | 2,818$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…2d63backed Troy | 51c | 2,407$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc010…3d6ebacked Troy | 51c | 2,320$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c58…d703backed Arkansas State | 49c | 1,265$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fd…9b47backed Troy | 50c | 1,191$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…4a9ebacked Arkansas State | 49c | 1,034$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…7463backed Arkansas State | 49c | 1,025$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…e285backed Arkansas State | 49c | 1,012$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…abfebacked Arkansas State | 50c | 1,011$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f72…8fe7backed Arkansas State | 49c | 1,011$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Troy | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…4388backed Arkansas State | 49c | 969$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a42bbacked Arkansas State | 49c | 962$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb76…0985backed Arkansas State | 49c | 874$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…ee8abacked Arkansas State | 49c | 824$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0531…549fbacked Troy | 50c | 770$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8af…fd2fbacked Troy | 50c | 744$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…d815backed Arkansas State | 49c | 722$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…fdfdbacked Troy | 50c | 721$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…f661backed Arkansas State | 50c | 667$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…2cb3backed Arkansas State | 50c | 638$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…4846backed Arkansas State | 50c | 586$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2e9dbacked Arkansas State | 49c | 564$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…ed34backed Arkansas State | 50c | 524$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…9bffbacked Arkansas State | 49c | 521$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Troy | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Troy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Arkansas State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arkansas State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Troy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Troy (-7.5)this page
- Arkansas State vs. TroyArkansas State won
- Arkansas State vs. Troy: O/U 52.5Under won
- Arkansas State vs. Troy: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Troy (-8.5)Arkansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.