College Football · resolved market
Arkansas State vs. Troy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2268daa116f5e14501509421c80e5e5445bd098849f8a74cede33152ab40e23c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Stateof Arkansas State, Troy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Troy | 75c | 13,333$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Troy | 13c | 12,098$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.72 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…9f41backed Arkansas State | 79c | 11,572$9,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Arkansas State | 25c | 8,020$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,011.51 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Troy | 16c | 4,961$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.21 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Arkansas State | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Troy | 8c | 3,727$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.1 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Troy | 72c | 3,238$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.06 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 2,433$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.97 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Troy | 46c | 2,419$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.07 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Troy | 59c | 2,398$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.95 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Arkansas State | 26c | 1,736$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.92 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Arkansas State | 28c | 1,710$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.2 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Troy | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Arkansas State | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas State | 25c | 984$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…98c9backed Arkansas State | 76c | 900.19$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.05 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Arkansas State | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.23 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Troy | 74c | 707.57$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.6 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arkansas State | 25c | 696.33$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.25 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Arkansas State | 74c | 523.67$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.15 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Arkansas State | 31c | 451.75$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.57 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Troy | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Arkansas State | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Troy | 11c | 311.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Troy | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Troy | 75c | 289$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.75 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Troy | 59c | 280$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Arkansas State | 25c | 254.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.64 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Arkansas State | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Arkansas State | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Arkansas State | 26c | 145.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…95ffbacked Troy | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Troy | 74c | 116.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Troy | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Arkansas State | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Troy | 73c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Troy | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Arkansas State | 73c | 72.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Troy | 21c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Arkansas State | 80c | 62.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Troy | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…aba2backed Arkansas State | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…6454backed Troy | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…e18fbacked Arkansas State | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Arkansas State | 44c | 26.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…e189backed Troy | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas State vs. Troythis page
- Arkansas State vs. Troy: O/U 52.5Under won
- Arkansas State vs. Troy: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Troy (-7.5)Arkansas State won
- Spread: Troy (-8.5)Arkansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.