College Football · resolved market
Arkansas State vs. Troy: O/U 52.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72cfd95bdc43a99db59659c644336056a6dfb256ea210b4346209acb7fa4cb44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c58…d703backed Over | 52c | 4,008$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…f661backed Under | 48c | 3,941$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86ac…29cfbacked Under | 48c | 3,013$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…7463backed Over | 51c | 2,617$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…4a9ebacked Under | 49c | 2,034$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fd…9b47backed Over | 52c | 2,002$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…2729backed Over | 52c | 1,560$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…abfebacked Over | 52c | 1,124$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…ba11backed Over | 52c | 1,119$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…110dbacked Under | 48c | 1,119$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…d815backed Over | 51c | 1,048$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…4846backed Over | 52c | 1,025$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…ed34backed Over | 52c | 1,013$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…884cbacked Under | 49c | 1,013$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8cb7backed Under | 48c | 959$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…9bffbacked Over | 51c | 904$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…ee8abacked Under | 49c | 821$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…4388backed Under | 49c | 783$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0531…549fbacked Over | 52c | 779$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…fdfdbacked Under | 48c | 759$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…c52fbacked Under | 48c | 690$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…dffebacked Under | 48c | 686$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8af…fd2fbacked Under | 48c | 659$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 651$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.52 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2e9dbacked Over | 51c | 648$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 601.59$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.79 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…2cb3backed Under | 48c | 584$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f72…8fe7backed Under | 48c | 546$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…7f91backed Over | 52c | 526$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a42bbacked Under | 50c | 449$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc010…3d6ebacked Over | 51c | 338$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…2d63backed Under | 49c | 338$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb76…0985backed Under | 49c | 299$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…e285backed Under | 49c | 267$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…002fbacked Over | 52c | 249$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 53c | 38.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas State vs. Troy: O/U 52.5this page
- Arkansas State vs. TroyArkansas State won
- Arkansas State vs. Troy: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Troy (-7.5)Arkansas State won
- Spread: Troy (-8.5)Arkansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.