South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x424cfa724416c6ed5b4a715ff2beb7096b562f5341097a9de8f2d8753093de69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SE Palmeirasof SE Palmeiras, CR Vasco da Gama
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked CR Vasco da Gama | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.95 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed SE Palmeiras | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.91 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CR Vasco da Gama | 51c | 1,107$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.19 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed SE Palmeiras | 24c | 585.19$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.81 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed SE Palmeiras | 72c | 373.25$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed SE Palmeiras | 34c | 367$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.22 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…1940backed CR Vasco da Gama | 80c | 303.75$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb588…2c11backed SE Palmeiras | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CR Vasco da Gama | 67c | 249.82$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.38 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed SE Palmeiras | 33c | 78.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked SE Palmeiras | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CR Vasco da Gama | 66c | 63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed SE Palmeiras | 33c | 57.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed CR Vasco da Gama | 67c | 57.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed CR Vasco da Gama | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.