South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cebada87ab7c78d0990f6e97e3e131c22f708419669d69cee2661abc5b58b6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 51c | 12,402$6,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,387 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 49c | 4,088$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.3 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 5c | 2,050$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.96 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +10.8wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 49c | 2,048$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.19 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 51c | 1,955$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.09 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Over | 15c | 1,918$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.14 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…80ffbacked Over | 46c | 1,546$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 49c | 1,102$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.04 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 29c | 524.07$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.03 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 12c | 465.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.42 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 49c | 454.04$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.48 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 8c | 453.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.17 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +10.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x753d…2ce0backed Under | 70c | 412.75$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…5166backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 20 | 95%19 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.36per pick | 59cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 5c | 285.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over | 49c | 204.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Over | 52c | 192.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +6.2wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +93%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 45c | 161.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 31c | 157.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 36c | 76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 17c | 61.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 44c | 34.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33ae…cf9ebacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.