Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x425cb88cada024f40f7e6ec4f611e2d345842e4101c1bd616ab482ef0384ecae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,376 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Yes | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed No | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked No | 53c | 4,717$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 2,269$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 47c | 2,221$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.08 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 4c | 2,013$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 7c | 1,443$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 67c | 1,375$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 53c | 1,300$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed No | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 47c | 882.56$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.76 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 17c | 840.82$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 36c | 675.9$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.37 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 5c | 669.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 47c | 454.7$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.99 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 48c | 400$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 47c | 359.56$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.57 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked No | 53c | 358.49$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 292.76$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.89 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed No | 54c | 264.81$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 46c | 260$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 31c | 211.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 52c | 203.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 53c | 190.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 53c | 132.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 48c | 121$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 117.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Yes | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 53c | 86.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 53c | 65.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…5683backed Yes | 47c | 61.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…c229backed Yes | 46c | 48.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 53c | 45.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Yes | 56c | 39.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 53c | 34.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed Yes | 47c | 32.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 26.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked No | 53c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 66c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.