MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426110a70bc5329521ab0d0ced4b9313412c1d04ec81c7e68fb86a0b931431d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 64c | 9,173$5,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.1 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 36c | 5,938$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.32 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Over | 36c | 4,964$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.18 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 64c | 1,957$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.45 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 61c | 708.5$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.32 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 25c | 532.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 205.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 39c | 166.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 74c | 144.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 38c | 82.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 77.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 38c | 68.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 38c | 55.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 62c | 48.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…cddbbacked Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 46.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 40c | 45.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 48c | 40.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 64c | 29.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 25.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 61c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 60c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 62c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 62c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.