NBA · resolved market
Over 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42686b780469540d2a79b6302b74a026310bd31796e045ecf63eff0cc6f76845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Over | 53c | 1,992$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 1c | 1,006$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Over | 51c | 792.94$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.4 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Under | 49c | 690.9$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Under | 75c | 298.98$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Over | 25c | 256.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 47c | 154.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…547dbacked Over | 53c | 116.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…05cabacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 51c | 81.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Under | 47c | 75.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…74ddbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818a…0714backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…a7b9backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…3e39backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 231.5this page
- Over 228.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.