NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0020ae06e91a7cde13521bc68846f57eab20b471de0b21b01df0ed6290f86fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder | 52c | 10,414$5,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,443.05 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nuggets | 47c | 8,477$3,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.2 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Thunder | 52c | 8,204$4,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,278.29 | 122 | 32%39 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 5,000$2,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.1 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nuggets | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Nuggets | 50c | 4,095$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.4 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Thunder | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Thunder | 53c | 3,393$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Nuggets | 47c | 3,236$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Thunder | 51c | 3,005$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.55 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Nuggets | 47c | 2,650$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.73 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Nuggets | 47c | 1,204$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.29 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Thunder | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 266 | 40.2%107 W · 159 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Thunder | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Nuggets | 47c | 405$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Thunder | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 359$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Thunder | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aeb…06f8backed Thunder | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder | 49c | 205$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1,197 | 46.7%559 W · 638 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Nuggets | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | +14.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets | 46c | 189.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…d8aebacked Thunder | 55c | 181.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…8316backed Nuggets | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Thunder | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Nuggets | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…364cbacked Thunder | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Thunder | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…8f1bbacked Thunder | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Nuggets | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Nuggets | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…0f1dbacked Nuggets | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…c5afbacked Nuggets | 52c | 19.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- Over 228.5Under won
- Over 231.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.