Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x427d2201576263cc3e5b4f783a8178a5c33f753d8f93d1cf1e0c9019823fd406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 2,066$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.84 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 42c | 1,696$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.68 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 58c | 1,225$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.5 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 945.24$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.58 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 568.23$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.7 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…be6fbacked Under | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 62c | 416.5$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.27 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 58c | 408$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.64 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 61c | 162$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Under | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 63c | 121.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 105.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 38c | 85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 57c | 68.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 37c | 48.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Over | 38c | 48.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Under | 54c | 48.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…d4b7backed Under | 67c | 44.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 42c | 33.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 48c | 32.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 42c | 28.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 42c | 28.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 61c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.