Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93239fb7de7ebf42b6917fb04aa5f3120afc4f025f79e55c91c7685a822852fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 74c | 1,682$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.89 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 22c | 1,382$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.77 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 700.01$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.87 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Under | 22c | 557.65$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 25c | 514.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.49 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Over | 7c | 409.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 78c | 252.69$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 78c | 244$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30f…ab88backed Over | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 75c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Over | 41c | 48.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 48.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 71c | 32.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 72c | 32.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 73c | 27.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 74c | 25.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 70c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 72c | 21.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 72c | 21.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed Over | 78c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 74c | 14.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.