NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42af4382fe8b91112a9ea71e4af3cdc1ba6f3c81ef6a625b79db0c2436abc3e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 54c | 864.74$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.96 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 694.55$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.97 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Over | 54c | 556$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.24 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 55c | 450$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Under | 57c | 365$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.44 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 51c | 154.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 43c | 106.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Over | 56c | 104.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…1ec7backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Rangers vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.