World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e6f4d52536ab3226f4071a1691aa0487fb711c671a301f820e93f34136a0fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 192.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 179.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 67c | 105.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 84.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 65c | 77.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 68.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…d970backed Yes | 38c | 56.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 37c | 53.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 52.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 50.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 37.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 34.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 64c | 33.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 37c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 23.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 22.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 64c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 64c | 19.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.