Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f2768524c294bd7872dcf66f8852faddac2326a15755fa0dc99518213b80a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb89f…3705backed Yes | 59c | 2,840$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 29c | 1,311$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.49 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 11c | 444$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.32 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 18c | 434.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Yes | 14c | 399.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 14c | 350$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.5 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 349.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 16c | 310.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 17c | 294.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 17c | 284$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 18c | 254$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 17c | 246.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 224$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 169.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 17c | 163.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 16c | 161.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Yes | 18c | 135.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c53…cba8backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…cf5ebacked Yes | 18c | 98.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed Yes | 19c | 90.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 16c | 81.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.