Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42ffe33f5906524f42a048848b00581380c10d66915bb2ea6d926a47051a83ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 16c | 1,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.53 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 73c | 670.74$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.5 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 598.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.17 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 496.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 25c | 334.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.75 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 334$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 18c | 304.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 223.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 20c | 223.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 42c | 222.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 200.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…6090backed No | 7c | 176.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 42c | 148.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 15c | 147.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 67c | 133.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 9c | 131.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 49c | 127.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 107.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1978…dc07backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 14c | 91.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 35c | 91.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 82.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 80.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 25c | 72.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4115…6af1backed Yes | 28c | 66.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 69c | 53.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 57c | 47.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 56c | 44.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 42c | 44.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 40.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…a454backed Yes | 55c | 34.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 80c | 24.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 75c | 19.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.