Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87cd2d3faffd57c4fa73b6330e4d279dc56a5466b6635dcc630888e2708cfbe8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 6c | 290.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 266.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 72c | 265.2$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.44 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 240$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 48c | 163.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…696abacked Yes | 7c | 159.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 28c | 148.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.53 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 141.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 141.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 67c | 115.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 11c | 114.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 30c | 95.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 75c | 93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 82.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 18c | 80.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 79.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 75.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 74c | 73.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 55c | 71.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 43c | 63.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 37c | 60.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 58.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 70c | 55.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 54.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 51.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 48.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 24c | 48.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 63c | 45.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 64c | 38.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 30c | 38.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 47c | 35.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 56c | 34.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 55c | 31.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 44c | 30.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…a1cdbacked Yes | 76c | 25.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 64c | 25.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 48c | 20.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 70c | 16.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…a454backed Yes | 71c | 16.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 66c | 15.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.