Olympics · resolved market
Will Julien Alfred (LCA) win gold in 100m W?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4302bbb1b7eed4d1c673e9d11d3069e8f73d57f5b58326e46225b262a1a00ade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8d…94b2backed No | 2c | 985.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 14c | 201.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 74c | 134.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…fc4cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…7cd1backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…1921backed Yes | 55c | 41.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…a877backed Yes | 66c | 30.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060b…1613backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julien Alfred (LCA) win gold in 100m W?this page
- Will Marie-Josee Ta Lou (CIV) win gold in 100m W?No won
- Will Sha’Carri Richardson (USA) win gold in 100m W?No won
- Will Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (JAM) win gold in 100m W?No won
- Will another athlete win Gold in 100m W?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.