Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43119f1552796961d7b2897166b9c82e3dcbf1b19a8b3792502c3de7f4090c98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 5c | 1,065$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 760.13$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.62 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 456.33$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 26c | 256.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 206.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 24c | 195.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 74c | 160.41$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 121.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 121.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…f46cbacked No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 20c | 105.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed No | 74c | 104.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 37c | 103.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 16c | 93.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 21c | 87.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…9795backed No | 71c | 83.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 73c | 78.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…ab9bbacked Yes | 31c | 61.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Yes | 29c | 50.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 29c | 48.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 71c | 37.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 32.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 32c | 31.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…df3fbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 27.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 24.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 76c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 70c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 72c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 73c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.