Other European Leagues · resolved market
Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4395b40ce0bfa45a9fce8448b42a76dcc1c929df1dbb03a32f61c5454b1a675b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Under | 48c | 18,351$8,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,869.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 6,272$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.77 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 5,037$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.22 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 4,706$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.9 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 52c | 3,762$1,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Over | 52c | 2,680$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 50c | 2,573$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.5 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 51c | 999.94$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…e0a7backed Under | 51c | 988.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 51c | 784.4$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.59 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 675.83$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.12 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 663.55$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.78 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 52c | 525$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 471.94$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.47 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 51c | 299.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Over | 36c | 277.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.72 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 68c | 273.88$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 50c | 256.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cf52backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…bee0backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 51c | 189.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 55c | 181.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 50c | 156.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 51c | 155$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 146.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 49c | 145.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 54c | 122.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Under | 50c | 100.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…ea1dbacked Under | 50c | 89.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 51c | 77.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b32…d6a8backed Over | 54c | 73.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 50c | 73.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…a400backed Over | 52c | 57.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c0b5backed Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…5b8bbacked Under | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…3e0cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Over | 52c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Under | 67c | 32.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 23.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…ffb3backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5this page
- Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5Under won
- Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.