South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x439aa3855c74ae2e8ae30b1609bf6091917145e0a6945152754ad210f1e76b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 54c | 7,043$3,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,235.99 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 4,135$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.4 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 1,395$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.85 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 23c | 1,242$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 77c | 974$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.02 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 77c | 327.27$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 77c | 323.7$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 317.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 49c | 242.39$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 632 | 61.2%387 W · 245 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 47c | 230.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 47c | 226.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 47c | 226.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 23c | 191.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Yes | 47c | 115.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d0…7534backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 77c | 71.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 44c | 69.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 76c | 65.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 40c | 64.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Yes | 38c | 59.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…7ad0backed No | 62c | 54.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 48.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Yes | 42c | 48.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 41c | 44.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 47c | 39.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Yes | 47c | 38.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 75c | 27.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 56c | 25.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 673 | 37.1%250 W · 423 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 52c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 77c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dedfbacked No | 77c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. AA Estudiantes end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-08-07?No won
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-08-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.