Champions League · resolved market
Will River Plate vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a28d966f90920d64a0478bc584b8f127d350f411e9999ccb1522c10424dc81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Yes | 23c | 1,767$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Yes | 21c | 1,520$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.16 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 79c | 1,496$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.16 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…a138backed Yes | 23c | 910$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 74c | 510.58$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ee…a127backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b3…68fabacked Yes | 23c | 395$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…a012backed No | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d7…5c6dbacked No | 77c | 255$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…d73abacked No | 77c | 255$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a0…9f6dbacked No | 77c | 255$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8af…5700backed No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 75c | 213.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…cf5ebacked No | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 78c | 179.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb494…3060backed Yes | 23c | 160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…3671backed No | 77c | 145$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…330abacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53d8…2714backed No | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd44…09fabacked No | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…f98fbacked Yes | 17c | 87.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…fedabacked Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…9f63backed No | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…8bb2backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 55c | 22.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…3d08backed No | 79c | 17.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will River Plate vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?this page
- Will River Plate beat Urawa Red Diamonds?Yes won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds beat River Plate?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.