Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a86ba05330c492b946d7340a89c778c3562d798c02a561e75522f9bf627756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4991…5ecdbacked No | 42c | 19,139$8,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,038.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 7,512$4,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,155.37 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 57c | 4,854$2,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.27 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 58c | 3,942$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.64 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 43c | 2,059$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1,085.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 58c | 948.28$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.28 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 59c | 705$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.15 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 60c | 477$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed No | 43c | 437.21$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 11c | 350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 57c | 294.9$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…6275backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked Yes | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 63c | 118.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 58c | 104.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 45c | 96.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 37c | 90.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 60c | 83.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Yes | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 40c | 75.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…349cbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 60c | 35.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.