South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Juventud vs. Club Guaraní: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43d8e6102262cfd3d116c78e3ecdd12041cfdbe5406eeea6f583e3aa5d765749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 4,891$2,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 37c | 1,400$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 63c | 797$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.87 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 553$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 60c | 462.81$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.69 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 411.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.29 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 370.37$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.37 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 54c | 329.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.28 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 62c | 303.77$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 192.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 36c | 139.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 32c | 102.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 58c | 59.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc89…e4d0backed Over | 65c | 56.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…4f02backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 61c | 49.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 48c | 46.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -8.1wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 42.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…b17fbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 48c | 38.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Over | 36c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…ce8abacked Under | 79c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…ed30backed Over | 79c | 24.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Juventud vs. Club Guaraní: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Juventud vs. Club Guaraní: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Juventud vs. Club Guaraní: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.