Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Troy Trojans vs. Toledo Rockets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44118648754b800dbba1125ee7e3a4992446928b9dd5d74962c5518d7dfda5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledo Rocketsof Troy Trojans, Toledo Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b3d…7422backed Toledo Rockets | 44c | 3,705$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Troy Trojans | 56c | 2,940$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.4 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Toledo Rockets | 44c | 2,380$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.3 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Troy Trojans | 56c | 1,578$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.56 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…1351backed Troy Trojans | 55c | 900$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Troy Trojans | 56c | 495.5$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.48 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Troy Trojans | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…c0eebacked Toledo Rockets | 68c | 468.75$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Toledo Rockets | 58c | 406.01$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.46 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Troy Trojans | 56c | 399.75$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.86 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Troy Trojans | 42c | 345$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Troy Trojans | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Toledo Rockets | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…a93cbacked Toledo Rockets | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Toledo Rockets | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Toledo Rockets | 39c | 49.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…1233backed Toledo Rockets | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b0…b47bbacked Troy Trojans | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…4fddbacked Troy Trojans | 64c | 29.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…9ed8backed Toledo Rockets | 36c | 29.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f8…f29cbacked Troy Trojans | 64c | 26.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…7d17backed Troy Trojans | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Troy Trojans | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Troy Trojans vs. Toledo Rocketsthis page
- Spread: Troy Trojans (-2.5)Toledo Rockets won
- Spread: Troy Trojans (-3.5)Toledo Rockets won
- Spread: Troy Trojans (-4.5)Toledo Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.