Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 36-37°F on January 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x441553de35596fa9f23e3e1d407b0fc38b0dc65210c4783370e3afa97e394901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed No | 3c | 721.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…0005backed No | 4c | 318.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa4…9608backed Yes | 46c | 242.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 24c | 150.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…4630backed Yes | 40c | 123.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…d674backed Yes | 11c | 99.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 43c | 82.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 80.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 73.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 41c | 65.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…3dabbacked No | 33c | 64.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 63c | 61.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed No | 65c | 59.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked No | 69c | 51.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 33c | 35.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7c…8848backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…ff76backed No | 62c | 25.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10d…da39backed Yes | 42c | 25.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a7…ba10backed Yes | 59c | 25.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 73c | 24.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…bce5backed Yes | 58c | 17.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…1d81backed Yes | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked No | 72c | 15.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 36-37°F on January 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 35°F or below on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 46°F or higher on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 38-39°F on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on January 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.