Fifa International · resolved market
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4433ced39240d1d91f83b963f5a8aff7e53a8b989944057af61818b95424bd2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 0c | 23,225$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 12c | 7,958$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.19 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 12c | 7,795$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.43 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Yes | 13c | 2,022$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.86 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,342$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 630 | 35.7%225 W · 405 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 13c | 907.11$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 12c | 850$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 127 | 29.9%38 W · 89 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 8c | 664.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…77dcbacked Yes | 12c | 431.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yes | 11c | 418.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Yes | 7c | 372.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1,063 | 31.7%337 W · 726 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…5903backed Yes | 12c | 340$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 11c | 301.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…ccb6backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc768…d748backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…a8b1backed Yes | 8c | 245$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 11c | 234.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 237 | 29.1%69 W · 168 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 12c | 207.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 355 | 49.9%177 W · 178 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c046backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…ba8abacked Yes | 7c | 168.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb606…e1bbbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…f01ebacked Yes | 12c | 150.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 12c | 140.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…276abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Yes | 12c | 113.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Yes | 13c | 105.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 356 | 19.4%69 W · 287 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…cf06backed Yes | 12c | 103.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…c865backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…1fe9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw?this page
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09?Yes won
- Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.