Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x816eb4d6a983c07eb6aae512b5534580ad2df3b03b1f154867e29bfbb252a67d

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $170,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $158,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,525 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbf44…71a4backed Yes	5c	19,807$971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$971.11	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes	1c	14,410$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.1	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Yes	4c	12,000$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	402	39.8%160 W · 242 L	-13.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	5c	9,237$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.31	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes	1c	9,090$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.18	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x310d…4decbacked Yes	6c	6,211$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.14	101	42.6%43 W · 58 L	-5.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes	5c	6,083$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.31	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes	4c	5,020$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.81	760	48.7%370 W · 390 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes	5c	4,604$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes	5c	4,483$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.48	122	6.6%8 W · 114 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…a9a8backed Yes	5c	3,892$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	78	42.3%33 W · 45 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28e2…d3abbacked Yes	4c	2,356$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	172	18.6%32 W · 140 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes	5c	2,040$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.35	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	5c	2,030$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.82	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed Yes	5c	2,022$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.65	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes	4c	1,464$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.17	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Yes	4c	1,414$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.38	630	35.7%225 W · 405 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes	4c	1,360$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.38	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Yes	5c	1,299$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.74	783	17.4%136 W · 647 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes	1c	1,150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	36	0%0 W · 36 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef4f…4598backed Yes	5c	1,048$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	232	36.6%85 W · 147 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	133	51.1%68 W · 65 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c39…d10bbacked Yes	6c	675.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e74…ec81backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	286	26.9%77 W · 209 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x264f…1b98backed Yes	5c	509.96$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	137	32.1%44 W · 93 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Yes	4c	499.92$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	237	29.1%69 W · 168 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes	5c	457.53$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	146	41.8%61 W · 85 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes	4c	372$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	148	36.5%54 W · 94 L	-9.5wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Yes	5c	361.28$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.98	414	51.4%213 W · 201 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes	5c	361.28$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.98	355	49.9%177 W · 178 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes	5c	321.17$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.38	301	17.9%54 W · 247 L	-11.2wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Yes	5c	305$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	266	31.2%83 W · 183 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Yes	5c	292.01$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	169	37.3%63 W · 106 L	-8.8wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes	5c	275$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	426	40.1%171 W · 255 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02c5…3c47backed Yes	5c	265.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Yes	5c	250$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	199	35.2%70 W · 129 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes	4c	238.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	75	41.3%31 W · 44 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09?this page
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw?No won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event