South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44752d1e9898ac7dffeb639ece8bc3349190fa9773faac70b67e64a76b737fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 37c | 3,736$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.38 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 64c | 2,965$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.18 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 66c | 1,532$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.98 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 33c | 980.35$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.52 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 62c | 541$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.85 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 36c | 382.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 76c | 373.69$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 33c | 312$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 64c | 309.9$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 37c | 229.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 27c | 222$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 64c | 193$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 36c | 184.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 73c | 154.44$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 65c | 124.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 63c | 106$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 34c | 78.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…1bf5backed Yes | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 37c | 59.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…490cbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 34c | 49.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…96dbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 62c | 30.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…f100backed Yes | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will CA Mineiro vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?No won
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.