TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,096 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies68c4,835$3,286 inLost-$3,285.6710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks31c4,214$1,306 inWon+$2,907.6612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c1,106$677 inWon+$429.26,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Colorado Rockies39c700$273 inLost-$2735,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Colorado Rockies36c356.2$127 inLost-$126.9699624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Colorado Rockies43c349.26$150 inLost-$15029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks57c331.02$189 inWon+$142.3411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c179.99$117 inWon+$632,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Colorado Rockies35c142.86$50 inLost-$5030452%158 W · 146 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Arizona Diamondbacks31c141$44 inWon+$97.291,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks71c138.98$99 inWon+$40.391,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked Colorado Rockies30c87.03$26 inLost-$26.4710846.3%50 W · 58 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks67c66.36$44 inWon+$21.92,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Colorado Rockies25c45.84$11 inLost-$11.359315.1%14 W · 79 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Arizona Diamondbacks78c43.41$34 inWon+$9.761,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks72c40$29 inWon+$11.25,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks68c20.48$14 inWon+$6.5232550.5%164 W · 161 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.