MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5ac62b193dabd83c84181f736097208463b1e5d41d0f4618193c27de9a0b180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 50c | 197,022$98,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,839.75 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 51c | 93,673$47,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,772.99 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 40,217$20,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,026.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,750 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 24,810$11,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,908.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 51c | 19,525$9,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,957.99 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 50c | 18,888$9,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,444 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 4,002$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.82 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 2,507$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 2,111$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 52c | 2,058$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.38 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 53c | 1,579$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.42 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 1,562$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 52c | 1,315$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.59 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 51c | 1,093$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.63 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 1,069$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.73 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 790.78$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.81 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 51c | 750$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 49c | 708$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 699.23$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 51c | 520$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 52c | 490.27$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.94 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 52c | 407.46$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 352.6$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 52c | 222.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 52c | 207.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 52c | 151.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 53c | 132.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe36…5ceabacked Over | 52c | 99.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…9b93backed Over | 52c | 87.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 49c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 52c | 65.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Over | 52c | 62.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 52c | 57.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 51c | 56.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…14b1backed Over | 52c | 50.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 49c | 50.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 50c | 48.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 49c | 40.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Over | 49c | 40.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…4aabbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 75c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Over | 53c | 36.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e7…c87fbacked Over | 53c | 33.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Over | 52c | 30.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Over | 52c | 24.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 51c | 22.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-7.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.