TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Under35c5,711$1,999 inLost-$1,998.7141149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over65c5,059$3,294 inWon+$1,764.9512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under35c1,000$350 inLost-$3506,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over65c301.11$196 inWon+$105.3929354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Over65c260.49$169 inWon+$91.171,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over65c246.16$160 inWon+$86.1631046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb20…40a6backed Over65c211$137 inWon+$73.851181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+51.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon+$53.8594648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under33c84.84$28 inLost-$28.318,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Over67c74.7$50 inWon+$24.730963.1%195 W · 114 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Over65c74.43$48 inWon+$26.0546946.3%217 W · 252 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over65c64$42 inWon+$22.41,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over65c62.92$41 inWon+$22.027558.7%44 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over65c49.74$32 inWon+$17.4132550.5%164 W · 161 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…5300backed Over65c48.8$32 inWon+$17.086240.3%25 W · 37 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over66c45.45$30 inWon+$15.451,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over65c26.4$17 inWon+$9.241,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd6…6939backed Over65c22.85$15 inWon+$83053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over64c21.86$14 inWon+$7.8737357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcd…ac63backed Over65c19.49$13 inWon+$6.823268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Over65c18.91$12 inWon+$6.6258054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Over65c17$11 inWon+$5.9522848.2%110 W · 118 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.