College Football · resolved market
Spread: South Florida (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44add91c14316462997f436cb79e533d0b4123c85fc2f5f06606603bf087e565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navyof South Florida, Navy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked South Florida | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Navy | 54c | 10,798$5,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,967.3 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked South Florida | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Navy | 55c | 10,000$5,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,542.2 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Navy | 55c | 9,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked South Florida | 46c | 5,055$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.3 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Navy | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Navy | 54c | 4,157$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.72 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed South Florida | 46c | 3,681$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.32 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Navy | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed South Florida | 47c | 2,400$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed South Florida | 47c | 1,926$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.22 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Navy | 52c | 699.99$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed South Florida | 46c | 657.52$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed South Florida | 45c | 631$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.95 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Navy | 55c | 365.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed South Florida | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed South Florida | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…0c60backed South Florida | 46c | 199.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Navy | 52c | 110.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed South Florida | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Navy | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed South Florida | 45c | 91.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Navy | 52c | 44.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Navy | 55c | 26.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…e48fbacked Navy | 55c | 26.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…8056backed South Florida | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: South Florida (-10.5)this page
- O/U 64.5Over won
- South Florida vs. NavyNavy won
- South Florida vs. Navy: 1H MoneylineNavy won
- South Florida vs. Navy: O/U 62.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.