Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b41b9ed42f6124f7591c8219db6a5e382bcac1cefa19ed636cb60468348e94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, eSuba
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed eSuba | 23c | 1,655$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.74 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf21…d34abacked NightBirds | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed NightBirds | 74c | 1,100$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.99 | 376 | 47.9%180 W · 196 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed eSuba | 29c | 805.11$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 869 | 43.2%375 W · 494 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed eSuba | 27c | 579.73$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 329 | 39.8%131 W · 198 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4a…3b84backed eSuba | 24c | 568.51$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 414 | 39.6%164 W · 250 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked eSuba | 26c | 472.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.16 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…fd7fbacked NightBirds | 76c | 417.6$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…82b9backed NightBirds | 77c | 309.12$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed eSuba | 19c | 289.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 154 | 29.9%46 W · 108 L | +15.4wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed NightBirds | 76c | 285.87$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 828 | 36.4%301 W · 527 L | -41.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed NightBirds | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…76bcbacked eSuba | 27c | 212.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed NightBirds | 69c | 164.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed NightBirds | 74c | 145.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 780 | 43.1%336 W · 444 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked eSuba | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,447 | 13.3%192 W · 1,255 L | -109.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…dacfbacked NightBirds | 72c | 139.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 289 | 65.1%188 W · 101 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed eSuba | 26c | 113.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed NightBirds | 77c | 108.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 749 | 49.7%372 W · 377 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed eSuba | 36c | 92.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eef…803dbacked NightBirds | 72c | 83.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed eSuba | 29c | 67.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 753 | 42.5%320 W · 433 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed eSuba | 25c | 56.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,218 | 39.9%486 W · 732 L | -65.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed NightBirds | 66c | 44.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed NightBirds | 53c | 39.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 1,175 | 47.4%557 W · 618 L | +42.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NightBirds | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,826 | 39.9%728 W · 1,098 L | -61.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…50cabacked eSuba | 42c | 30.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…cae0backed NightBirds | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 419 | 47%197 W · 222 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked NightBirds | 68c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 187 | 38.5%72 W · 115 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x378f…b454backed NightBirds | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters PlayoffsNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 3 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.