MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b4923f8366b78cf4487220b05d04ea8177583789bfee2502e2142a7b0d817e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 3,069$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.68 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 2,509$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.7 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 2,385$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.97 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 1,000$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.38 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 828.21$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.16 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 814.3$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.58 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 738.84$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.12 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…40d9backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 539.29$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 10c | 525$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf1…e491backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 519.57$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a4…8f85backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 480.43$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…89babacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 460.71$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 205.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…76fabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 181.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Boston Red Sox | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 80.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 64.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 22.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.