Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b9e53c4517c25efa94d8c30be10461e4dba0d0d3380ddc77c2b06e641a3f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,013$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 7c | 1,284$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 4c | 749.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 699.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 413.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 6c | 403.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 395.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 7c | 269.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 199.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 6c | 199.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…3790backed Yes | 22c | 190.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 120.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 120.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 22c | 98.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 60.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 25.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.