Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce withdrawal from Syria before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x451eb666ff6a21cb211301e304ec7555d0f71f0831509d56200a64a1d628cc99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ebf…874dbacked Yes | 24c | 49,354$11,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,844.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…3174backed No | 76c | 49,354$37,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,844.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 8c | 1,831$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…dfc6backed Yes | 1c | 1,621$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,433$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 1,275$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 7c | 800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 786.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 665$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 14c | 566.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 428.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ce…23b2backed Yes | 12c | 170.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 134.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked No | 76c | 132.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9f…7b75backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…5838backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 74.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…2294backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 26c | 51.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 26c | 43.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 74c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 74c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd5…13a0backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6fcebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…ba0bbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.