Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4547a52bf5554afddb31c57726107e8a66619df57343b0097f8874c440a1d9ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 234.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 206.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 8c | 193.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 176.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 146.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 144.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 109.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 109$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 107.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…f8ecbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 15c | 80.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 65c | 55.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 33c | 46.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…9b6cbacked Yes | 37c | 32.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.