NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4580616a46e3c22ff729d7c5b723a46b42706e90ea3bc4e53e2180a5e27626a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Oilers, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Oilers | 41c | 344.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Islanders | 59c | 336.35$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Islanders | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Oilers | 39c | 249.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Islanders | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Oilers | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Islanders | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Oilers | 38c | 157$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Oilers | 38c | 119.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Oilers | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Islanders | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 60c | 80.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Oilers | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Islanders | 60c | 52.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Islanders | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Oilers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Islanders | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Oilers | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Oilers | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Oilers | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Oilers | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Islanders | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…f859backed Oilers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Islanders | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Islanders | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Islanders | 62c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. OilersIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.