NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc10a521d85dbbe3857f600fcf9c2eef45c1a38d40bf435f72ca9d8ae64743e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 2,331$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.96 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 2c | 1,034$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 52c | 994.68$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.23 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 51c | 828.48$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.52 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 50c | 533$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 52c | 502.37$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.23 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 487.16$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.39 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 475.94$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 444$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Under | 52c | 311.06$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.88 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 50c | 288$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 260.75$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 49c | 247$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 210.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Under | 50c | 200.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Over | 29c | 185$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 50c | 149.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 63c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 50c | 77.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Over | 49c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Over | 51c | 25.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5this page
- Islanders vs. OilersIslanders won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.