Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459b8f7a8f77359222ddc6bd8895e03699d0783d49bc2094c9355d37c97703dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7e2…1056backed Yes | 2c | 3,099$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 1c | 2,080$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,623$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 54c | 1,476$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 58c | 433.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 44c | 394.01$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.49 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed Yes | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 262.52$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf1…ffb3backed Yes | 26c | 247.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 42c | 236.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…6b48backed Yes | 8c | 217$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 49c | 210.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 70c | 191.32$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 48c | 184.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 43c | 171.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 42c | 169.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 50c | 120.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…e78ebacked Yes | 61c | 107.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 83.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…6bcfbacked No | 64c | 61.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…2616backed Yes | 50c | 60.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 54.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5438…0bd6backed Yes | 59c | 51.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…a1adbacked Yes | 60c | 51.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95f…adfdbacked Yes | 62c | 51.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 46.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…3b88backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8000…cb92backed Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192c…184fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked Yes | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…93acbacked Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af8…3c2fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 55c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…38ebbacked Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.