Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459f313a8d8ee4898d7961c0fe982e4643062696bb48eaf6495518d488811608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 25c | 186.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 48c | 174.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 153.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 137.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Yes | 44c | 123.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…744ebacked Yes | 42c | 120.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc56…37e7backed Yes | 15c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 33c | 96.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 51c | 86.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 35c | 84.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 68.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 65.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 63.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbd…0351backed No | 42c | 42.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 48c | 41.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 57c | 36.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2438…b331backed Yes | 53c | 35.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 37c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe8…2914backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23af…22dcbacked Yes | 48c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 44c | 30.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed Yes | 52c | 26.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed No | 59c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 60c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…2939backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 49c | 23.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a631backed Yes | 53c | 23.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 71c | 22.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 54c | 22.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 64c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 66c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.