Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa350a0119bae1eea29d27360f6bdffd80dd35826d3fdc585b29e837455f1a74d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 5c | 322.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 71c | 255.39$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 7c | 166.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 28c | 149$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 135.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 70c | 126$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 122.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 78c | 100.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc56…37e7backed Yes | 15c | 97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 91.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 24c | 86.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 83.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes | 62c | 78.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 27c | 78.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 77.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 74.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 67.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Yes | 24c | 57.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 50.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 47.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 47.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 74c | 33.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…b49bbacked No | 72c | 33.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb97b…5e80backed No | 76c | 29.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…5718backed No | 72c | 29.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 72c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 73c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 73c | 14.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…e4b3backed No | 77c | 13.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.