College Football · resolved market
Will Duke beat Florida State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45c5f643f62425206f1dbd72c09c66a48077b405212512bfaba0f53fcb1f1706
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Duke, FSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed FSU | 16c | 9,110$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.41 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…abd0backed Duke | 77c | 2,254$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Duke | 78c | 1,093$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.35 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Duke | 58c | 1,000$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.95 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…e712backed FSU | 34c | 876.42$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked FSU | 41c | 631.66$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.98 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked FSU | 36c | 600$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed FSU | 42c | 599.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…1914backed Duke | 64c | 391.57$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.63 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Duke | 78c | 295.79$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Duke | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked Duke | 56c | 230$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Duke | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…21a8backed FSU | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…b94fbacked FSU | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…1301backed FSU | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x933a…f821backed Duke | 52c | 58.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed FSU | 58c | 57.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…6376backed Duke | 58c | 47.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Duke | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Duke | 59c | 24.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Duke | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Duke beat Florida State?this page
- Will Duke beat Florida State by 3 or more points?Yes won
- Will there be 42 or more combined points scored?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.