Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d9a191b1a335d0e41e63ca6c936700992254a9c0cef70bb38b1bcbc62a3363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 3,050$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.96 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 2,009$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.02 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 1,576$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.06 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 1,206$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.41 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 1,198$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.2 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 899.23$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.66 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 698.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.15 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 696.42$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.36 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 554.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 489.45$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.89 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 483.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 375.89$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 233.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 232.01$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 208.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 175.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 122.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 110.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 103.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Nemiga Gaming | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 99.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 95.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 74.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 71.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 69.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 59.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Nemiga Gaming | 78c | 51.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 48.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 41.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 25.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2555…5254backed Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 24.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 77c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.