Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x282106d9f9bbe7d710dbf6adad38881ce761f5263fe2840ed274512f12401112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 3,072$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.47 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 1,020$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.2 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 830.24$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.58 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6139backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 682.59$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.12 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…703ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 495.19$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 485.13$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 436.61$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.32 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…ea40backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 420.69$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 413.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.37 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 14c | 379$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 377.72$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Ilbirs eSports | 7c | 320.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Ilbirs eSports | 8c | 244.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…21a7backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 187.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 175.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…b7b5backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 146.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Nemiga Gaming | 69c | 133.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…1321backed Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 129.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 127.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 120.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked Ilbirs eSports | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 243 | 45.3%110 W · 133 L | +15.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 77.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 65.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 47.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 38.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…8d4abacked Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.